Peer vs Critical Review

Hand holding a magnifying glass with blank space for design or text

The Scientific Method is not just a way to test and validate the universe around you. For career scientists, its a great way to avoid being humiliated in front of the whole world.

We can go into the detail on the first steps in The Method another time, for this exercise we’re going to focus on Peer Review. We’re going to take a lesson from a chemistry professor of mine back in college.

I can’t remember his name at the moment, but this professor explained Peer Review something like this;

“Peer Review is the best way to make sure you are not humiliated when you publish your work. Extremely smart people usually have extremely large egos. So when you publish something, you can expect the most ‘know it all egotistical asshole’ to rip you a new one up and down if you get something wrong. Professional Scientists are some of the meanest people you will ever meet and at least one of us will make you look like a fool if given the opportunity. By showing how dumb one of their peers is, that’s you, they get to show off how smart they are. That is simply part of the profession.”

“Now how do you avoid that?”, he went on, “You thoroughly test your hypothesis. You should actually try to falsify your own work and findings before you show it to anyone else. Try to find a way to break your hypothesis and when you have exhausted all your ideas, ask the smartest person you know to try to break it. That’s Peer Review. Good theories are hard to break and you should never publish an idea or theory without rigorous testing beforehand.” He always used that term, Rigorous, or Rigorously test.

“Once your smartest colleague fails to falsify your methods and results, then it is safe to publish. If your idea has a large impact on the scientific world, then you need to have at least a few of your very smart peers review your work before publishing. The bigger the claim, the more scrutiny and ridicule you will receive.”

Folks, that is how Peer Review works. The Scientific Method does not stop at Peer Review, it is followed up by Critical Review. Critical Review by the most ardent and egotistical skeptics that care to examine your work. The Scientific Method doesn’t even stop at Critical Review, in fact it is ‘never’ closed to further review. So long as there is someone who wants to take another look, there will be skepticism. Peer Review is just a smart gateway to use in order to keep yourself from being embarrassed. It’s the difference between Proof Reading your own writing and having someone else do it. It does not and should not determine the final Grade.

Climatologists are demanding that we stop and accept Peer Review as the final step in observing Anthropocentric Climate Change.  I find it somewhat amazing that Quantum Mechanics and General Relativity are up for scientific scrutiny, but the Green House Effect and Anthropocentric Global Warning is not.  Two well established theories that do a great job of prediction are up for scrutiny, but a mish-mash of partial hypotheses and theories that do a terrible job of predicting is not?

That’s what should be alarming to ‘scientists’ and the general public. Well, at least to people who take the Scientific Method and their Reputations seriously.

This should also be alarming to the Judge and Jurors in the upcoming Michael Mann Libel case.  I should hope that the Defendants’ lawyers bring this up.

Is it Your Fault the Climate is Changing?

The Climate is Changing, the Seas are Rising, and armies of Chicken Littles all over the world are organizing to make sure everyone knows that it is Unprecedented, Catastrophic, and most importantly all because of Your use of fossil fuels.

Or is it?

In a ‘discovery’ that has been around for years, but has only been recently publicized, we find that Sea Levels were 6-9 meters higher 125,000 years ago than they are today. For those not well versed in Paleo-geology, most of Earth’s last several million years has been in a deep freeze known as an Ice Age. Every 100,000 years or so it experiences warm periods known as Glacial Minimum or Inter-glacial. Today we are right dead in the middle of one of these Warm Periods.

Roll the clock back 125,000 years ago and we find another of these warm periods. Go back approximately another 125,000 years and we find another an so on for at least 2.5 million years. Ladies and gentlemen, we are in an Ice Age known as The Quaternary. This period in time is typically defined by the “cyclic growth and decay of continental ice sheets driven by Milankovitch cycles and the associated climate and environmental changes that occurred.”

We know that Greenland’s Ice Sheets, the glaciers that Climatologists are so concerned about melting because of humankind, nearly melted completely away during the last Inter-glacial period. It doesn’t take genius to figure out that is why the Sea Levels were 6-9 meters higher than they are today. Every Climatologist can tell you if Greenland’s Ice Sheets melt, then Sea Levels are going to rise 6-9 meters. It baffles me that they can’t make that connection.

From the American Institute of Physics;

In the last interglacial period, some 125,000 years ago, the planet had reached a temperature about as high as was likely to come from greenhouse warming in the next century or two. Back then, even though most of Antarctica had remained ice-covered, the sea level had been at least seven meters (more than 20 feet) higher than at present. This was about what would be expected if most of Greenland melted.

Ice_Age_Temperature

Take a moment and imagine that you are Alien Scientist visiting Earth today. Humans never evolved, no fossil fuels have been used, and CO2 levels never get above 280ppm as we see in historical records. You have been tasked with forecasting conditions for the next 500, 5000, 50000, and 125000 years in the future. You have all the same data for past and present conditions on Earth that we currently have in our possession.

I think most intelligent people/aliens would imagine that the cycle would repeat itself and conditions would follow a similar pattern as to what we see in the historical record. Greenland’s Ice Sheets are going to melt, Sea Levels are going to rise 6-9 meters (20-30 feet), then the Earth will start freezing again, New York will be under 1 mile of Ice again, then it will melt fairly rapidly, and then the process will repeat.

Now if you are a Climatologist, given the same data, it seems you would try to convince everyone that;

  1. Climate Changed Naturally for billions of years.
  2. That an Ice Age began 2.5 million years ago and has had several very cold and moderately warm periods.
  3. That Greenland’s Ice Sheets melted completely away without the influence of burning fossil fuels.
  4. That Sea Levels rose 6-9 meters higher than today without the influence of humankind.
  5. But, somewhere around 150 years ago the Climate Stopped Changing Naturally.
  6. Now it is Your Fault that the Climate Changes, Glaciers Melt, and that Sea Levels rise.

Don’t believe them for another moment.  The story of Chicken Little, or Henny Penny, has been around for more than 2,500 years. It seems that the phenomena of getting worked up into a hissy fit over very natural and easily mitigated events is nothing new.

It is time ladies and gentlemen to stop funding Chicken Little and get back to making the most of our lives while we can enjoy them.  It is time to reject the Nonsense that is known as Climate Science.